Plaza Italia up, Plaza Italia down
Column published in La Tercera, by Naim Bro, academic at the School of Government, Adolfo Ibáñez University, and researcher at IMFD.
Last week, Plaza Italia underwent a major change: the seven lanes of the traditional roundabout were removed, giving way to an esplanade connecting Balmaceda, Forestal, and Bustamante parks. At the same time, the eternal controversy resurfaced over which figure should occupy the center of the plaza, following the removal of the statue of General Baquedano during the social unrest of 2019. Should the statue of Baquedano be returned? Should it be replaced by one of Gabriela Mistral?
That discussion brought me back to an old question : Is Plaza Italia still the border that divides Santiago, as the saying goes, "Plaza Italia up, Plaza Italia down"?
Some say no. Writer Roberto Merino asserts that this boundary has lost its meaning. Academic Ricardo Carrasco suggests that the dividing line has shifted toward Tobalaba, around the Tobalaba Urban Market.
But I wanted to verify it more objectively, using data.
In data science, there is a technique called clustering. Imagine you have information about all the neighborhoods in a city: socioeconomic status, average age, proportion of migrants, perception of safety, land use, distribution of surnames, etc. An algorithm can identify which areas are similar to each other and group them together.
That's what I did. I gathered data from different sources:
• Aesthetic characteristics at different points in the city ( with data obtained from Rossetti et al 2019), such as how attractive, safe, and vibrant a neighborhood looks (Thanks to Hans Lobel—co-author of the study—for providing me with the data).
• Demographic information from the 2017 census (socioeconomic status, age, gender, and immigration status)
• Distribution of surnames by neighborhood, with data from Bro & Mendoza 2021.
• Land use according to SII records, obtained from Vera et al 2022.
Then, an algorithm (for the nerds: Gaussian Mixture Model) grouped the neighborhoods into three large areas according to their similarity in these indicators. In the maps below, you can see the main types of neighborhoods in Santiago.
Figure 1: Maps showing the city of Santiago grouped according to different types of data
What do these maps tell us? The story changes slightly depending on which indicator you use, but the general pattern is clear: there are three Santiagos. Downtown, the upper class neighborhood, and the inner city.
• The center (Santiago Centro and surrounding areas) is perceived as vibrant but also unsafe and with depressing areas. There is a stark contrast between historic buildings and deteriorated spaces. In social terms, it is the sector with the highest proportion of migrants, a younger population, and a slightly lower proportion of women. The data show that it plays the role of a "city of arrival": it is the most intensely commercial area of the city, with the highest concentration of hotels, offices, and public administration.
• The upper neighborhood (from Plaza Italia upwards) is perceived as the most beautiful and affluent area of the city. It has the highest proportion of elite surnames and few Mapuche surnames. Its population is slightly more female and older, and has an intermediate proportion of migrants. In economic terms, its average socioeconomic level far exceeds that of the rest of Santiago. Its land use is mixed, combining residential areas with some commercial, office, and parking spaces.
• Inner Santiago, which includes more peripheral and residential neighborhoods, displays intermediate attributes. It is perceived as less attractive, less safe, and less vibrant, but also more residential. It has a higher proportion of Mapuche surnames, low levels of international migration, and its main function is as a commuter town: by far, residential is the most common land use, with little commercial or administrative activity.
And yes, Plaza Italia continues to be a real dividing line. Not just symbolic: the data also shows that one type of city ends there and another, very different one begins. I'm glad I'm not the one who has to decide which statue should be in the new Plaza Italia.